Forums Trading Journals arthur's tradefinder tests

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  • #6804
    Arthur
    Participant

      Hello

      I have started this journal to look into a possible target and trade identifying indicator. There are 3 individual “signals” that could possibly be used to trade direction with a clear target indicated.This is very early days for the concept and may not be sustainable at all – but trading a few smaller time frame signals over the past few days, have showed enough promise to investigate a little further.

      No grail here – yet :-)

      So – I will test a few live calls right here to keep me honest and to investigate the concept.

      Sticking to the 3 possible setups.

      Welcome to pop in and look.

      Success to you :good:

       

      #6805
      Arthur
      Participant

        So – although weekend – I post 2 setups I will engage in as we open in the new week. One is on EUR/JPY and one on GU.

        The EUR/JPY is a 4hr setup and long. Giving me a target of 135.26. Current price is 133.76. I will work on a scale in model. According to the signal – there is a possible 150 pippies from the current level.

        Next one is GU – but here we look at MONTHLY. Target is indicated @ 1.6010 and we are currently trading at 1.5480 ( give or take). So a nice 500+ pips.

        Fair to state I will update the EUR/JPY trade daily and the GU trade bi-weekly?

        So let me follow how this turns out.

        All success

         

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        #6808
        Arthur
        Participant

          The reason for investing a little time.. :scratch:

           

           

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          #6810
          Edington
          Participant

            Hey Arthur. Very interesting, allow me to subscribe  :good:

            Best, Michael

             

            #6811
            Arthur
            Participant

              Thanks, M

              Hopefully I will find some short term intraday setups as well as we go through the next few trading days.. These mostly for 7 or 10 pippies. If you like to scavenge… :yahoo:

              #6814
              Edington
              Participant

                Scavenge is my middle name lol.

                #6815
                Billyon
                Participant

                  Subscribed.

                  Can you explain the red and blue dots?

                  #6824
                  Arthur
                  Participant

                    So – although weekend – I post 2 setups I will engage in as we open in the new week. One is on EUR/JPY and one on GU. The EUR/JPY is a 4hr setup and long. Giving me a target of 135.26. Current price is 133.76. I will work on a scale in model. According to the signal – there is a possible 150 pippies from the current level. Next one is GU – but here we look at MONTHLY. Target is indicated @ 1.6010 and we are currently trading at 1.5480 ( give or take). So a nice 500+ pips. Fair to state I will update the EUR/JPY trade daily and the GU trade bi-weekly? So let me follow how this turns out. All success

                     

                    Hello – unfortunately, the EUR/JPY trade is cancelled due to the setup changing on the opening of the market. The signal not valid anymore once the bar closed. So – only the GU monthly trade was entered.

                     

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                    #6826
                    Arthur
                    Participant

                      Hi,

                      A possible long scalp on EUR/JPY on 1hr. Target @ 133.81. Let’s see..

                       

                       

                      • This reply was modified 9 years, 1 month ago by Arthur.
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                      #6834
                      Arthur
                      Participant

                        Hi, A possible long scalp on EUR/JPY on 1hr. Target @ 133.81. Let’s see..

                         

                        Hello – to the pip. Maybe just lucky.

                         

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                        #6837
                        Edington
                        Participant

                          Hi, A possible long scalp on EUR/JPY on 1hr. Target @ 133.81. Let’s see..

                          Hello – to the pip. Maybe just lucky.

                          So the blue dot sets the bullish trade target, being the top of the candle. I assume reverse works for red dots? Interesting…

                          Best, Michael

                          #6838
                          Arthur
                          Participant

                            Hi – possible long scalp on EU 15 min chart. Target @ 1.0930?

                             

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                            #6840
                            Arthur
                            Participant

                              Hi, A possible long scalp on EUR/JPY on 1hr. Target @ 133.81. Let’s see..

                              Hello – to the pip. Maybe just lucky.

                              So the blue dot sets the bullish trade target, being the top of the candle. I assume reverse works for red dots? Interesting… Best, Michael

                              Hello, Edington

                              One would like to have a bear bar with a blue marker and a bull bar with a red marker. The 3rd condition is a red marker without a follow up blue marker on the next bar – this may indicate short continuation. But I’m still checking things out. The short signals do look better to trade overall. Still early days and may not even be sustainable in the long run. Will go into more details on what it does after proper testing. :mail:

                              All the best

                              #6852
                              Arthur
                              Participant

                                Hi – possible long scalp on EU 15 min chart. Target @ 1.0930?

                                 

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                                #6854
                                Arthur
                                Participant

                                  Hi

                                  Possible CAD short on 30 min chart. Target @ 1.2410.?

                                   

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                                  #6858
                                  Arthur
                                  Participant

                                    Tested heavily today.

                                    Possible short EU to target 1.0851. This on 30 min.

                                     

                                     

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                                    #6876
                                    Arthur
                                    Participant

                                      Hi Possible CAD short on 30 min chart. Target @ 1.2410.?

                                      Hi,

                                      To the pip again. But took a while to mature. There however is still too many trades out ( not completed). I have also seen one or two things that may change the way trades are approached. But still testing.

                                       

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                                      #6878
                                      Arthur
                                      Participant

                                        Tested heavily today. Possible short EU to target 1.0851. This on 30 min.

                                        Hello. EU signal disappeared after 2 bars. Although the saved template continued showing the signal. This tells me there are other factors I need to consider and will probably have to wait to look for a “fixed” signal before considering. I do not know as yet. I therefor decided to cut this one and chalk it down as a failed trade – although still a little profit to book.

                                        The charts below will show the signal I marked as a template – and the one where that signal is not there. I still have the long target of 1.60xx there on GU – but on monthly chart. This makes we weary of the EU short. But let me continue doing the trades and let us see over time what comes out. :unsure:

                                        Regards

                                         

                                         

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                                        #6881
                                        Edington
                                        Participant

                                          Hey Arthur,

                                          if the signal disappears after 2 candles, i am not sure how successful this will be in the longer run. I would try to run a back test simulator to determine how bad it changes. I assume it locks in after 2 closed candles, but that may be a signal too late, depending on the setup.  It is interesting however and again, thanks for sharing your experiment. :good:

                                          Best,

                                          Michael

                                          #6883
                                          fxrambo
                                          Participant

                                            hi all is this indicator shared yet ?

                                            #6889
                                            Arthur
                                            Participant

                                              Hello, Edington

                                              Thank you for the post. Yes – still a lot of screen time needed to fully understand which signals will be high probability and which ones to be weary of. Interestingly – the 2nd post I mentioned the EUR/JPY long on 4hr towards 135.26 from 133.xx but did not take the trade due to the “signal” disappearing. We however still reached the target. I therefor need to see if these markers appear to indicate levels when they show up on the chart – even if they disappear later on..

                                              Here is the USD/CAD 1hr – possible target long towards 1.2502. Current price 1.2447. Again – I do not know how much draw down can be expected. Or how long it will take to cover. Bet let us follow to see.. :scratch:

                                               

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                                              #6891
                                              Arthur
                                              Participant

                                                This is off topic – but your opinion welcome.

                                                We know that retail brokers are “closed” over week end. But the consensus always was that the market does not sleep. So – should a live feed be available from a direct source – one would be able to observe movement during these “closed” periods? Look at what EU did over the “closed”period.

                                                EUR/USD showed a spike down to 1.0909 ( twice) – whilst we have a closing price of 1.0991 on my chart. This while the market is “closed”.

                                                EUR/JPY showed a spike down to 135.45 (twice) – whilst we have a closing price of 136.43 on my chart. This while the market is “closed”.

                                                EUR/GBP showed a spike down to 0.7133 (twice) – whilst we have a closing price of 0.7187 on my chart. This while the market is “closed”.

                                                Can it be coincidence that all EUR related pairs show the same ” movement” at the same time? Who caused this? Why?

                                                Mark these on your chart.Keep them in mind for the future. :mail:

                                                 

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                                                #6895
                                                Arthur
                                                Participant

                                                  Hello FXRambo

                                                  I’m not going to waste your time with things not understood as yet. This is why I opened a journal. To test ideas. Once I understand fully and think it may be worth more time and effort – I will involve more people. It may be stillborn as an idea already – who knows? :scratch:

                                                  All the best!

                                                  #6896
                                                  fxrambo
                                                  Participant

                                                    hellow  Arthur

                                                    I saw edington post#6881 and I thought may be you have shared the indicator somewhere else about off topic thing I have been in that line I wonder where you got those chart of eurgbp,eurjpy and eurusd when market closed ?I use different brokers to see the misprice on that closing times.do you mind sharing where you got those

                                                    #6897
                                                    Edington
                                                    Participant

                                                      Hey Arthur.

                                                      Looking at the charts, it reminds me of something i used to see a lot in the stock market. After the market would close for the session, the market makers would swap shares between themselves. If you used Level 2, you could see who and how much. I am unsure of what effect the spikes will have on open price. I have no kind words about market-makers, to me they are the crooks that always win. If I may go off topic, take a look at what I mean. http://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2015/05/20/four-banks-plead-guilty-to-foreign-exchange-collusion-ubs-pleads-guilty-to-wire-fraud/

                                                      I find amusing  the “penalty” they received…makes me rethink my approach towards trading. They all play dumb and get away with the goods. If we consider trading a form of gamble for the sake of the argument, then its not a game of poker where the players bring example total 5k, then leave with 5k. (one trader brings 1k, wins 500, leaves 1.5k, another trader loses 500…etc) It seems like a Las Vegas casino where the house always wins…in this case the banks. So, reality 5 traders bring 5k, 4 traders go home naked, 1 trader with 1.5k? and banks book 3.5k. lol

                                                      And thats my ramble for the week.  :wacko:

                                                      As for the signal disappear, you are right more testing in necessary. Have a good weekend.

                                                      Best,

                                                      Michael

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