Hmm maybe I should start a trade journal instead.
Aside for the scalps in yellow, the entries for swing trading in purple have been very good. I have been very content with them. I tried an add-on last night for longs because the top looked not so good, but it turns out I was wrong. I ended up getting stopped out with a -1% loss. I was prepared to take a -2 on the trade, so I am happy with the outcome. The recently bull strength at the swing low was too strong to get a good entry, so I opted for a roughly 1:1 RR on the current open trade.
For the FIRST picture and the use of pivots:
1 of the yellow lines (pivot points) will be hit with 92% probability
The CTZ (low) for h=25 will be somewhere along the purple horizontal line 80% of the time
Price has until the end of the green box to make a new low without becoming a CTZ
If price becomes transient(at the bottom), there is a 70% chance that price will make a new high above the current swing high shown in the picture (1.1450)
If we take the original propositions to be true, then there is no edge here. However, you can combine multiple of these non-edges to create what looks suspiciously to me as a directional bias. Perhaps I’m getting loony
- This reply was modified 9 years ago by CSendo. Reason: ordering of pictures